Dedollarization, Indexation and Nominalization: The Chilean Experience

This paper revisits the Chilean experience with dollarization, indexation and nominalization in the 1958-2003 period. The purpose is to understand how Chile generally avoided dollarization and actually dedollarized in the 80s in order to draw some lessons for other countries. We find that many policies that Chile pursued are not easy to implement elsewhere. Some key characteristics of the Chilean process are related to initial institutional conditions and developments, whereas others are connected to macroeconomic performance and specific regulations. Indexation plays a key role in explaining how dollarization can be avoided.

Currency Crises and Collapses

macroeconomics, Currency Crises, Collapses

Monetarism Beyond M1A

This work analyzes, from an empirical standpoint, the information contained in the M1A aggregate in Chile and compares it with other aggregates. The findings reveal that, at least for now, the M1A aggregate does not seem to have particularly valuable information that would make it a better indicator of inflationary pressures within the monetary policy decision horizon. This is consistent with the practice that central banks followed in the past, when they used quantitative targets for money and focused their analyses on broader aggregates. One possible explanation for the excessive importance given in Chile to the monetary aggregate M1A is the history of financial repression that the country lived until the mid-seventies.

The Monetary Policy Horizon in Chile and Other Inflation-Targeting Countries

Tolerating some volatility in the rate of inflation leads the design of inflation target characteristics—in inflation-targeting economies—to reflect flexibility in four dimensions, namely: the price index that defines the target, the width of the target range, the midpoint of the monetary policy horizon (MPH) and the time range of the MPH. This paper evaluates Chile’s MPH—recently redefined by the Central Bank of Chile—in light of the Chilean experience and in an international comparison with other inflation targeters around the world. We review analytical and practical aspects of the formulation of the inflation-targeting framework. Then we present descriptive information on inflation, its volatility and its deviation from the target for all inflation-targeting countries, in order to infer the actual degree of tolerance countries have had toward inflation rates’ deviation and volatility. Next we describe the current design of monetary policy in the four aforesaid dimensions of flexibility in inflation-targeting countries. Finally, we review inflation forecasts published by the Central Bank of Chile and evaluate the consistency between the announced MPH and the Bank’s actual policy horizon